For years we’ve heard that the U.S. is losing jobs to countries that get things done quicker and cheaper. Donald Trump had this issue at the forefront of his campaign, and it was arguably one of the largest drivers of his popularity in 2016. As he said in an early Republican debate,
“I will bring jobs back from China. I will bring jobs back from Japan. I will bring jobs back from Mexico. I’m going to bring jobs back and I’ll start bringing them back very fast.”
But in trying to bring back the jobs we’ve outsourced, we miss a simpler reason as to why these jobs have disappeared: They are out of date, and obsolete for humans; politicians are promising manufacturing and other blue-collar jobs that simply do not exist anymore. Technology is coming for, or has already taken, as many jobs as have been sent abroad. The blue-collar work that was also salaried and benefits-laden work, allowing for a down payment on a two-story home in an American suburb and the means to start a family, is increasingly scarce.
Robots Have Been Replacing Human Workers For Years
Recall the 1964 Twilight Zone episode The Brain Center at Whipple’s in which robots replace all workers at a factory, including, in the end, the boss himself. Millions of Americans scrambling because Happy Days-era jobs don’t exist anymore, and too many people are unwilling or unable to retrain, stuck with a skill set better utilized by robots.
As Rice University professor of computational engineering Moche Vardi told Factor earlier this year,
“US factories are not disappearing; they simply aren’t employing human workers. Job losses due to automation and robotics are often overlooked in discussions about the unexpected rise of outside political candidates like Trump and Bernie Sanders.”
This is a key reason why many people are so frustrated. It’s why the campaign promises made by Donald Trump were so appealing. It is far easier to point a finger at a culprit like China than it is to confront the much more complex and inevitable reality of technology’s march forward and the capitalist forces driving it.
Truck driving, for example, is one of the most common “blue collar” jobs in the country. It has been one of the last beacons of hope for middle class workers without a college degree to earn a substantial living. But that is changing. There are some 3.5 million truck drivers in the U.S., and while self-driving trucks haven’t hit the roads just yet (and given Tesla’s track record, they might be further away than we think), they will . And this doesn’t take into account the jobs at gas stations, truck stops, diners, and motels along the way that will be lost as well when human truck drivers cease to frequent them.
In a 2021 report from McKinsey, they found that automation is likely to displace 20-25% of jobs in developed economies by 2030. These are jobs in fields like retail, manufacturing, and transportation—areas where low-wage workers have long been the backbone of the economy. Meanwhile, there is a growing reliance on higher-skill jobs in technology, health care, and management—sectors that are less accessible to those with fewer resources or a higher education.
By 2030, some experts predict that up to 800 million jobs worldwide could be replaced by automation and AI, including routine labor and even professional roles like lawyers and doctors. These aren’t just predictions – they are projections based on the accelerating pace of AI advancements, which are already reshaping industries across the globe. The World Economic Forum projects that automation will create 58 million new jobs globally by 2022, but these will require new skills and training, leaving behind those unable to pivot fast enough.
As published by Inverse, the solution to the problem of disappearing jobs will be basic income for all (provided by the government). Humans will be paid simply for being, well, human, as there won’t be any employers left willing to pay them for anything else.
But even the promise of a universal basic income (UBI) is fraught with complications. For one, the very economic system that allows for technological advancements to eliminate jobs is the same system that makes it difficult to imagine a UBI becoming a reality. Capitalism, in its current form, thrives on exploitation. Workers have value only insofar as they contribute to the creation of wealth, and when they can no longer do that, they are discarded. The idea of paying people to exist, simply to sustain themselves without contributing to the endless cycle of wealth creation, is a challenge to the very heart of a profit-driven system.
This subject remains largely untouched by most of our government officials, who are still clinging to the hope that the future is something we can control with tariffs and trade deals. But the simple truth is that capitalism, as we know it, has no real solution for the displacement of workers by automation, especially as the focus remains squarely on maximizing shareholder value.
Capitalism Goes Endlessly Back to the Future
“The more visionary the idea, the more people it leaves behind.” – Cosmopolis, 2003
The idea that we should be focusing our time, energy, and tax dollars on bringing back jobs of the past is a dangerous distraction. The future lies in jobs that aren’t being displaced by technology – clean energy, tech, healthcare, education. These are sectors that require attention, innovation, and growth. However, there must be a focus on inclusivity and socialization to ensure that these industries don’t fall prey to the same capitalist dynamics that strip workers of their dignity and value.
Bringing back mass-employment production lines in the modern age is akin to bringing back whale oil as a power source. The days of Moby Dick are long gone, no one is risking life and limb to spear a whale anymore. Yet the myth of manufacturing jobs persists in the political discourse, even as their real replacement is on the horizon.
The general working populace seeks to normalize the future. No one wants to be left behind. And yet there remains always a discord between past and future cannot be reconciled within a capitalist model – that which creates capital for the company and its shareholders is all that is important, after all; human beings have no inherent worth in a system focused only on the creation of wealth. That divide is the one between the workers who sustain the economy and the capital that fuels it. Capitalism thrives on the relentless pursuit of wealth, and this wealth is increasingly being extracted from the labor of workers who are disposable, not valued.
At best, capitalists might focus on retraining. For now, there is still demand for skilled labor, especially in sectors like coding, development, and design, which have been at the core of the Silicon Valley economy. But retraining only works for some, leaving behind the vast number of workers who aren’t in a position to make that transition. And even when they do, the tech industry itself is not immune to the dangers of being cannibalized by its own success, with many workers facing the very same precariousness they sought to escape from in the first place.
Republicans can keep blaming China. They can put up as many trade barriers as they like. This may raise the price of goods and increase high-skill, high-wage employment (e.g., AI developers, robot designers, healthcare professionals, and “managers” overseeing the technology). But it won’t do anything for workers without the “proper” background or education, like coal miners or assembly line workers or truck drivers.
There is no stopping progress. We’ve known this since the 19th century when the Luddites first railed against the machine. Since 1964, when The Twilight Zone showed us those poor, doomed factory workers in lamentation. As long as capitalism exists, innovation for the sake of profit will continue its forward march. The focus must shift away from pandering to this future in a way that leaves people behind; the focus must shift away from an economic model that cares little (if at all) for humans and only for how much money it can make for shareholders.
Technology will inevitably reshape the world, but whether it serves humanity or abandons it will depend on how we choose to navigate the challenges capitalism continues to ignore.